Aston Villa vs Sunderland: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Aston Villa v Sunderland in the Premier League, played at Villa Park. In the table, Aston Villa are 10th, upper half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Sunderland are 19th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Aston Villa, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Bologna, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Sunderland, last 5: WLWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Newcastle, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Aston Villa, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Sunderland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa 1.8 xG, Sunderland 0.9 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa 59%, draw 23%, Sunderland 18%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aston Villa59%fair 1.70 · @1.70
Draw23%fair 4.40 · @3.70
Sunderland18%fair 5.46 · @4.70
2.70Expected goals
1.77Aston Villa xG
0.93Sunderland xG
52%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.8 – 0.9 Sunderland expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Attack vs Premier League average
+17%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+19%
+9%
Our expected goals here
1.92
1.09
Our own ratings from every Premier League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✓
59%
1.70
1.70
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)✓
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Sunderland +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
1.11
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first
61%
1.63
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✓
36%
2.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.21
–
Recent results
Aston Villa – last 6
WWWWLW
16 Apr
vs Bologna
4–0
W
9 Apr
@ Bologna
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs West Ham
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Lille
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Manchester United
1–3
L
12 Mar
@ Lille
1–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sunderland – last 6
WLWDLW
22 Mar
@ Newcastle
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
15 Feb
@ Oxford United
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and Sunderland.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sunderland 18%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–1 Sunderland, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs Sunderland?
Aston Villa vs Sunderland (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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