Burnley 18%Draw 21%Aston Villa 61%Expected goals 1.05 – 2.14
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✗61% · @1.64
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓82% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Burnley vs Aston Villa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Burnley welcome Aston Villa to Turf Moor for a Premier League fixture on Sunday 10 May (14:00 WAT).
Current form
Burnley, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Leeds, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Aston Villa, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Nottingham Forest, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Aston Villa, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.2 for Burnley.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley 1.0 xG, Aston Villa 2.1 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 57% for three or more goals, 59% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley 18%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 61%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (82%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley 1–2 Aston Villa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley18%fair 5.62 · @4.75
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @4.00
Aston Villa61%fair 1.64 · @1.64
3.19Expected goals
1.05Burnley xG
2.14Aston Villa xG
59%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–29%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: Burnley 1.0 – 2.1 Aston Villa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✗
61%
1.64
1.64
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)
77%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Aston Villa -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.55
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.13
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✗
40%
2.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.10
–
Recent results
Burnley – last 5
LLLLD
1 May
@ Leeds
1–3
L
22 Apr
vs Manchester City
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
1–4
L
3 Mar
@ Everton
0–2
L
21 Feb
@ Chelsea
1–1
D
0.6Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Aston Villa – last 6
WLWWWW
7 May
vs Nottingham Forest
4–0
W
30 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Sunderland
4–3
W
16 Apr
vs Bologna
4–0
W
9 Apr
@ Bologna
3–1
W
22 Mar
vs West Ham
2–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Burnley and Aston Villa.
What is the prediction for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Burnley vs Aston Villa?
On our numbers Burnley have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aston Villa 61%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley vs Aston Villa?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Our predicted score is Burnley 1–2 Aston Villa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Burnley vs Aston Villa?
Burnley vs Aston Villa (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Turf Moor.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
West Ham0