Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: AZ Alkmaar to win @ 3.05 – our chance 42% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗42% · @3.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Utrecht welcome AZ Alkmaar to Stadion Galgenwaard for a Eredivisie fixture on Sunday 1 March (16:45 WAT). In the table, Utrecht are 14th, lower half, on 12 points after 12 matches; AZ Alkmaar are 5th (upper half) with 23.
Current form
AZ Alkmaar, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over FC Noah, at home. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Utrecht 1.3 xG, AZ Alkmaar 1.8 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Utrecht 34%, draw 24%, AZ Alkmaar 42%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: AZ Alkmaar to win @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Utrecht34%fair 2.91 · @2.26
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.35
AZ Alkmaar42%fair 2.38 · @3.05
3.13Expected goals
1.34Utrecht xG
1.79AZ Alkmaar xG
63%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–29%
0–18%
2–17%
0–27%
2–26%
From our goals model: Utrecht 1.3 – 1.8 AZ Alkmaar expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
42%
2.38
3.05 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.58
1.60
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)✗
55%
1.82
–
Asian handicap
Utrecht +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.14
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first✗
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
29%
3.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Utrecht – last 1
D
22 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar – last 3
WWL
26 Feb
vs FC Noah
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Sparta Rotterdam
3–1
W
19 Feb
@ FC Noah
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
On our numbers Utrecht have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 24% and AZ Alkmaar 42%.
How many goals will there be in Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our predicted score is Utrecht 1–1 AZ Alkmaar, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar?
Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Galgenwaard.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
FC Volendam3