Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Ajax to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✗62% · @1.75
Double chanceAjax or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.27
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax travel to face PEC Zwolle on Sunday 1 March in the Eredivisie, with MAC³PARK Stadion the venue – the ball rolls at 12:15 WAT. In the table, PEC Zwolle are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 12 matches; Ajax are 3rd (among the top four) with 25. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give PEC Zwolle 1.0 xG, Ajax 2.3 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 61% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – PEC Zwolle 18%, draw 20%, Ajax 62%.
Lower-risk option: Ajax or draw (82%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.48.
Price worth noting: Ajax to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ajax or draw (82%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: PEC Zwolle 1–2 Ajax. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
PEC Zwolle18%fair 5.61 · @4.10
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.90
Ajax62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
3.32Expected goals
1.00PEC Zwolle xG
2.32Ajax xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
0–210%
1–18%
0–18%
1–38%
0–38%
From our goals model: PEC Zwolle 1.0 – 2.3 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
62%
1.61
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Ajax or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.63
1.48
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.60
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
First team to score
Ajax to score first✗
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.27
–
Recent results
PEC Zwolle – last 2
DL
22 Feb
@ Utrecht
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Heerenveen
2–4
L
1.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ajax
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PEC Zwolle and Ajax.
Our pick is Ajax or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
On our numbers PEC Zwolle have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ajax 62%.
How many goals will there be in PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is PEC Zwolle 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at MAC³PARK Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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