Value bet: Ajax to win @ 2.45 – our chance 43% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win43% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score68% · @1.30
GoalsOver 2.5 goals71% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.83
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 2 May the Eredivisie brings Ajax against PSV Eindhoven at Johan Cruijff Arena. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Ajax are 3rd, among the top four, on 25 points after 12 matches; PSV Eindhoven are 1st (leading the league) with 26. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
PSV Eindhoven, last 4: WLLL Their latest outing: 6–1 win over PEC Zwolle, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.0 xG, PSV Eindhoven 1.7 xG – a total near 3.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 71% and GG at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 43%, draw 21%, PSV Eindhoven 35%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.30.
Price worth noting: Ajax to win @2.45 – the bookmaker implies 41%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 PSV Eindhoven. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax43%fair 2.30 · @2.45
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.95
PSV Eindhoven35%fair 2.85 · @2.45
3.71Expected goals
2.03Ajax xG
1.68PSV Eindhoven xG
68%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–18%
2–27%
1–27%
3–16%
2–05%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.0 – 1.7 PSV Eindhoven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win
43%
2.30
2.45 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
68%
1.46
1.30
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)
55%
1.81
–
Asian handicap
PSV Eindhoven +1 (Asian handicap)
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
67%
1.48
1.42
First team to score
Ajax to score first
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time
37%
2.71
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.83
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 2
DD
22 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
PSV Eindhoven – last 4
WLLL
23 Apr
vs PEC Zwolle
6–1
W
22 Mar
@ Telstar
1–3
L
3 Mar
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–3
L
13 Feb
@ FC Volendam
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and PSV Eindhoven.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
On our numbers Ajax have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 35%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 PSV Eindhoven, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven (Eredivisie) kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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