Value bet: Hamilton Academical to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlloa Athletic to win ✓40% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 13.42
Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the League One brings Alloa Athletic against Hamilton Academical at Recreation Park. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Alloa Athletic are 9th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 14 matches; Hamilton Academical are 2nd (among the top four) with 33. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alloa Athletic 1.2 xG, Hamilton Academical 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alloa Athletic 40%, draw 26%, Hamilton Academical 33%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.88.
Price worth noting: Hamilton Academical to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.24). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alloa Athletic 1–1 Hamilton Academical. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alloa Athletic40%fair 2.49 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.10
Hamilton Academical33%fair 2.99 · @3.40
2.49Expected goals
1.16Alloa Athletic xG
1.32Hamilton Academical xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Alloa Athletic 1.2 – 1.3 Hamilton Academical expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alloa Athletic
Hamilton Academical
Attack vs League One average
-19%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
-27%
Our expected goals here
0.97
1.60
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alloa Athletic to win✓
40%
2.49
1.95
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.88
Draw no bet
Alloa Athletic (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Alloa Athletic +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.66
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.32
1.24
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Hamilton Academical to score first✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hamilton Academical / FT Hamilton Academical✗
23%
4.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
13.42
–
Recent results
Alloa Athletic
No recent results on record.
Hamilton Academical – last 1
W
17 Feb
vs East Fife
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alloa Athletic and Hamilton Academical.
What is the prediction for Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
On our numbers Alloa Athletic have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Hamilton Academical 33%.
How many goals will there be in Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
Our predicted score is Alloa Athletic 1–1 Hamilton Academical, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical (League One) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Recreation Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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