Swindon Town vs Crewe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Crewe travel to face Swindon Town on Saturday 21 February in the League Two, with County Ground the venue – the ball rolls at 13:30 WAT. In the table, Swindon Town are 13th, lower half, on 19 points after 14 matches; Crewe are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Swindon Town 1.5 xG, Crewe 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Swindon Town 46%, draw 25%, Crewe 29%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.66.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (71%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Swindon Town 1–1 Crewe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Swindon Town46%fair 2.18 · @2.00
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.60
Crewe29%fair 3.49 · @3.30
2.55Expected goals
1.47Swindon Town xG
1.08Crewe xG
58%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Swindon Town 1.5 – 1.1 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Swindon Town
Crewe
Attack vs League Two average
-16%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-10%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.32
0.94
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✗
46%
2.18
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.66
Draw no bet
Swindon Town (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Crewe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.24
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.13
First team to score
Swindon Town to score first✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Swindon Town / FT Swindon Town✗
27%
3.65
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.97
–
Recent results
Swindon Town – last 1
W
17 Feb
@ Barnet
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 1
L
17 Feb
vs Fleetwood Town
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Swindon Town and Crewe.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Crewe?
On our numbers Swindon Town have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Crewe 29%.
How many goals will there be in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Swindon Town 1–1 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Swindon Town vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at County Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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