Millwall v Derby Prediction & Expected Goals (10 Mar) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMillwall to win ✓53% · @1.95

Double chanceMillwall or draw ✓78% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33

Millwall vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

20:45 WAT, Tuesday 10 March: Millwall v Derby in the Championship, played at The Den. In the table, Millwall are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10.

Current form

Millwall, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Hull City, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Derby, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Blackburn, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Millwall, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Derby.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 1.7 xG, Derby 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 53%, draw 25%, Derby 22%.
Lower-risk option: Millwall or draw (78%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Millwall or draw (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 1–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Millwall53%fair 1.89 · @1.95

Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.35

Derby22%fair 4.48 · @3.90

2.68Expected goals

1.68Millwall xG

0.99Derby xG

51%Both score

48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–012%

1–112%

2–010%

2–110%

0–07%

0–17%

From our goals model: Millwall 1.7 – 1.0 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Millwall to win ✓	53%	1.89	1.95
Double chance	Millwall or draw ✓	78%	1.29	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	51%	1.97	1.85
Draw no bet	Millwall (draw no bet) ✓	70%	1.42	–
Asian handicap	Derby +1 (Asian handicap)	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	72%	1.39	1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.93	1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	73%	1.36	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.15	1.08
First team to score	Millwall to score first ✓	59%	1.71	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	42%	2.40	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Millwall / FT Millwall ✓	33%	3.05	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.33	–

Millwall – last 3

WWL

7 Mar	@ Hull City	3–1	W
25 Feb	vs Birmingham	3–0	W
21 Feb	vs Portsmouth	1–3	L

2.3Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Derby – last 3

WLL

28 Feb	vs Blackburn	3–1	W
24 Feb	@ Hull City	2–4	L
21 Feb	@ Watford	0–2	L

1.7Scored / game

2.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Millwall vs Derby?

Our pick is Millwall or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Millwall vs Derby?

On our numbers Millwall have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Derby 22%.

How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Derby?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Derby?

Our predicted score is Millwall 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Millwall vs Derby?

Millwall vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at The Den.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Millwall v Derby: numbers & prediction