Birmingham v Blackburn Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBirmingham to win ✗55% · @1.85

Double chanceBirmingham or draw ✗81% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.00

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38

Birmingham vs Blackburn: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Friday 3 April the Championship brings Birmingham against Blackburn at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Birmingham are 1st, leading the league, on 29 points after 15 matches; Blackburn are 13th (lower half) with 21.

Current form

Birmingham, last 4: WLLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over QPR, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Blackburn, last 5: LDLLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Oxford United, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Momentum favours Birmingham, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for Blackburn.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Birmingham 1.7 xG, Blackburn 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 55%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Birmingham 55%, draw 25%, Blackburn 19%.
Lower-risk option: Birmingham or draw (81%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 55%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Birmingham or draw (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Birmingham 1–0 Blackburn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Birmingham55%fair 1.80 · @1.85

Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.30

Blackburn19%fair 5.19 · @4.20

2.58Expected goals

1.69Birmingham xG

0.89Blackburn xG

55%Both score

48%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

1–111%

2–011%

2–110%

0–08%

0–17%

From our goals model: Birmingham 1.7 – 0.9 Blackburn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Birmingham to win ✗	55%	1.80	1.85
Double chance	Birmingham or draw ✗	81%	1.24	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	55%	1.81	2.00 ▲
Draw no bet	Birmingham (draw no bet) ✗	74%	1.35	–
Asian handicap	Blackburn +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	69%	1.45	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	73%	1.37	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	52%	1.91	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	88%	1.14	–
First team to score	Birmingham to score first ✗	60%	1.65	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	42%	2.37	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Birmingham / FT Birmingham ✗	35%	2.89	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.38	–

Birmingham – last 4

WLLW

11 Mar	vs QPR	1–0	W
2 Mar	vs Middlesbrough	1–3	L
25 Feb	@ Millwall	0–3	L
21 Feb	@ Norwich	2–1	W

1.0Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

75%Over 2.5

Blackburn – last 5

LDLLW

11 Mar	@ Oxford United	0–1	L
7 Mar	vs Portsmouth	1–1	D
28 Feb	@ Derby	1–3	L
24 Feb	vs Bristol City	1–2	L
20 Feb	vs Preston	1–0	W

0.8Scored / game

1.4Conceded / game

60%Both scored

40%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Blackburn?

Our pick is Birmingham or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Birmingham vs Blackburn?

On our numbers Birmingham have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Blackburn 19%.

How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Blackburn?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Blackburn?

Our predicted score is Birmingham 1–0 Blackburn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Birmingham vs Blackburn?

Birmingham vs Blackburn (Championship) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Birmingham v Blackburn: numbers & prediction