Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Monaco to win @ 4.20 – our chance 30% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLens to win ✗50% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.54
Lens vs Monaco: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lens welcome Monaco to Stade Bollaert-Delelis for a Ligue 1 fixture on Saturday 21 February (17:00 WAT). In the table, Lens are 11th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Monaco are 7th (upper half) with 16. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lens 1.7 xG, Monaco 1.6 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lens 50%, draw 19%, Monaco 30%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Monaco to win @4.20 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lens 1–1 Monaco. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lens50%fair 1.99 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.18 · @4.33
Monaco30%fair 3.30 · @4.20
3.26Expected goals
1.70Lens xG
1.56Monaco xG
65%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lens 1.7 – 1.6 Monaco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lens to win✗
50%
1.99
1.70
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.53
Draw no bet
Lens (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Monaco +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.47
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.71
1.61
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.26
First team to score
Lens to score first✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.65
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lens / FT Lens✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Lens
No recent results on record.
Monaco – last 2
LW
17 Feb
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–3
L
13 Feb
vs Nantes
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lens and Monaco.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Lens vs Monaco?
On our numbers Lens have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Monaco 30%.
How many goals will there be in Lens vs Monaco?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lens vs Monaco?
Our predicted score is Lens 1–1 Monaco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Lens vs Monaco?
Lens vs Monaco (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz