Paris Saint Germain 79%Draw 14%Metz 8%Expected goals 2.83 – 0.88
71%
Betarazi pick
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.31
7/10Rating
1.31Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 54% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultParis Saint Germain to win79% · @1.13
Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw92% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.00
GoalsOver 2.5 goals71% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.60
Paris Saint Germain vs Metz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Metz travel to face Paris Saint Germain on Saturday 21 February in the Ligue 1, with Parc des Princes the venue – the ball rolls at 21:05 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Paris Saint Germain 2.8 xG, Metz 0.9 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 54% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Paris Saint Germain 79%, draw 14%, Metz 8%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 54%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Metz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Paris Saint Germain79%fair 1.27 · @1.13
Draw14%fair 7.29 · @9.25
Metz8%fair 13.03 · @12.50
3.71Expected goals
2.83Paris Saint Germain xG
0.88Metz xG
54%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
3–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–07%
4–07%
From our goals model: Paris Saint Germain 2.8 – 0.9 Metz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris Saint Germain to win
79%
1.27
1.13
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw
92%
1.08
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.85
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Paris Saint Germain (draw no bet)
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Paris Saint Germain -1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
71%
1.40
1.31
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
51%
1.96
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.42
First team to score
Paris Saint Germain to score first
74%
1.34
–
Half-time result
Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time
58%
1.72
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris Saint Germain / FT Paris Saint Germain
54%
1.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.60
–
Recent results
Paris Saint Germain – last 2
WL
17 Feb
@ Monaco
3–2
W
13 Feb
@ Rennes
1–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Metz – last 1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paris Saint Germain and Metz.
What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Metz?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Metz?
On our numbers Paris Saint Germain have a 79% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Metz 8%.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Metz?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint Germain vs Metz?
Our predicted score is Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Metz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Metz?
Paris Saint Germain vs Metz (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 21:05 (West Africa Time) at Parc des Princes.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
