Toulouse 47%Draw 26%Paris FC 27%Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23
71%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.41 · bookmaker 1.39
7/10Rating
1.39Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 58% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultToulouse to win47% · @1.93
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.31
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.29
Toulouse vs Paris FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the Ligue 1 brings Toulouse against Paris FC at Stadium de Toulouse. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Toulouse are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 10 matches; Paris FC are 3rd (among the top four) with 20.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toulouse 1.4 xG, Paris FC 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toulouse 47%, draw 26%, Paris FC 27%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.39). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toulouse 1–1 Paris FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toulouse47%fair 2.13 · @1.93
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.40
Paris FC27%fair 3.67 · @4.10
2.67Expected goals
1.45Toulouse xG
1.23Paris FC xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Toulouse 1.4 – 1.2 Paris FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toulouse to win
47%
2.13
1.93
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.31
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
58%
1.73
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Toulouse (draw no bet)
63%
1.58
–
Asian handicap
Paris FC +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
71%
1.41
1.39
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
54%
1.87
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
88%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Toulouse to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toulouse / FT Toulouse
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.29
–
Recent results
Toulouse – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Paris FC
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toulouse and Paris FC.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.39.
Who will win Toulouse vs Paris FC?
On our numbers Toulouse have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Paris FC 27%.
How many goals will there be in Toulouse vs Paris FC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Our predicted score is Toulouse 1–1 Paris FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Toulouse vs Paris FC?
Toulouse vs Paris FC (Ligue 1) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium de Toulouse.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz