Value bet: Metz to win @ 3.80 – our chance 30% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultToulouse to win ✓44% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.82
Metz vs Toulouse: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 March the Ligue 1 brings Metz against Toulouse at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off: 17:15 WAT.
Current form
Metz, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Lens, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metz 1.6 xG, Toulouse 1.6 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metz 30%, draw 26%, Toulouse 44%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Metz to win @3.80 – the bookmaker implies 26%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.85). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metz 1–1 Toulouse. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metz30%fair 3.31 · @3.80
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.25
Toulouse44%fair 2.26 · @1.95
3.15Expected goals
1.56Metz xG
1.59Toulouse xG
54%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–28%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–27%
From our goals model: Metz 1.6 – 1.6 Toulouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toulouse to win✓
44%
2.26
1.95
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.85
Draw no bet
Toulouse (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.68
–
Asian handicap
Metz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
First team to score
Toulouse to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.59
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toulouse / FT Toulouse✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.82
–
Recent results
Metz – last 3
LLL
8 Mar
@ Lens
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Toulouse – last 1
L
15 Feb
@ Le Havre
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Toulouse.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Metz vs Toulouse?
On our numbers Metz have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Toulouse 44%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Toulouse?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Toulouse?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 Toulouse, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Toulouse?
Metz vs Toulouse (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
