Value bet: Metz to win @ 2.82 – our chance 39% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMetz to win ✗39% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.15
Metz vs Nantes: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 5 April the Ligue 1 brings Metz against Nantes at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Kick-off: 16:15 WAT.
Current form
Metz, last 5: DLLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Rennes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Nantes, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lille, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Nantes, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.2 for Metz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Metz 1.5 xG, Nantes 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Metz 39%, draw 25%, Nantes 35%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Metz to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Metz 1–1 Nantes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Metz39%fair 2.54 · @2.82
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.20
Nantes35%fair 2.83 · @2.46
2.86Expected goals
1.54Metz xG
1.32Nantes xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Metz 1.5 – 1.3 Nantes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Metz to win✗
39%
2.54
2.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.80
Draw no bet
Metz (draw no bet)
53%
1.90
–
Asian handicap
Nantes +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.99
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.08
First team to score
Metz to score first✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Metz / FT Metz✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.15
–
Recent results
Metz – last 5
DLLLL
22 Mar
@ Rennes
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Toulouse
3–4
L
8 Mar
@ Lens
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Stade Brestois 29
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Auxerre
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Nantes – last 3
LWL
1 Mar
@ Lille
0–1
L
22 Feb
vs Le Havre
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Monaco
1–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Metz and Nantes.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Metz vs Nantes?
On our numbers Metz have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Nantes 35%.
How many goals will there be in Metz vs Nantes?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Metz vs Nantes?
Our predicted score is Metz 1–1 Nantes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Metz vs Nantes?
Metz vs Nantes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 16:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade Saint-Symphorien.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Angers0
Lyon0
Le Havre1
Auxerre1
Lorient1
Paris FC1
Monaco2
Marseille1