Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonaco to win ✓46% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.73
Monaco vs Marseille: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:45 WAT, Sunday 5 April: Monaco v Marseille in the Ligue 1, played at Stade Louis II. In the table, Monaco are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Marseille are 4th (among the top four) with 18. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Monaco, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Lyon, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Marseille, last 3: LWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Lille, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Monaco, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Marseille.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monaco 1.7 xG, Marseille 1.3 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monaco 46%, draw 24%, Marseille 30%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.55). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monaco 1–1 Marseille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monaco46%fair 2.17 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.65
Marseille30%fair 3.32 · @3.10
3.09Expected goals
1.75Monaco xG
1.35Marseille xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Monaco 1.7 – 1.3 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✓
46%
2.17
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Draw no bet
Monaco (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.65
–
Asian handicap
Marseille +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.22
First team to score
Monaco to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.58
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✗
29%
3.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.73
–
Recent results
Monaco – last 6
WWDWLW
22 Mar
@ Lyon
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Paris Saint Germain
3–1
W
25 Feb
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Lens
3–2
W
17 Feb
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–3
L
13 Feb
vs Nantes
3–1
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 3
LWL
22 Mar
vs Lille
1–2
L
13 Mar
vs Auxerre
1–0
W
20 Feb
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and Marseille.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Monaco vs Marseille?
On our numbers Monaco have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marseille 30%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs Marseille?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Monaco 1–1 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs Marseille?
Monaco vs Marseille (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz0
Nantes0