Value bet: Rodez to win @ 2.55 – our chance 46% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRodez to win ✗46% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.86
Rodez vs Bastia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bastia travel to face Rodez on Friday 20 March in the Ligue 2, with Stade Paul-Lignon the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Rodez, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Grenoble, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Bastia, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Boulogne, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.6 goals a game.
Momentum favours Rodez, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.6 for Bastia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Rodez 1.5 xG, Bastia 1.0 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Rodez 46%, draw 25%, Bastia 29%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Rodez to win @2.55 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Rodez 1–1 Bastia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Rodez46%fair 2.18 · @2.55
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.30
Bastia29%fair 3.43 · @2.70
2.51Expected goals
1.49Rodez xG
1.02Bastia xG
51%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Rodez 1.5 – 1.0 Bastia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodez to win✗
46%
2.18
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Rodez (draw no bet)
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Bastia +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Rodez to score first
55%
1.83
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodez / FT Rodez✗
29%
3.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.86
–
Recent results
Rodez – last 3
WWW
6 Mar
vs Grenoble
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs Montpellier
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Clermont Foot
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Bastia – last 5
LDLDD
13 Mar
vs Boulogne
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ PAU
2–2
D
27 Feb
vs Annecy
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Dunkerque
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Estac Troyes
0–0
D
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Rodez and Bastia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Rodez vs Bastia?
On our numbers Rodez have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Bastia 29%.
How many goals will there be in Rodez vs Bastia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Rodez vs Bastia?
Our predicted score is Rodez 1–1 Bastia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Rodez vs Bastia?
Rodez vs Bastia (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Paul-Lignon.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Amiens3
Le Mans4