Value bet: Montpellier to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMontpellier to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.96
PAU vs Montpellier: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
PAU welcome Montpellier to Nouste Camp for a Ligue 2 fixture on Friday 20 March (20:00 WAT). In the table, PAU are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 12 matches; Montpellier are 3rd (among the top four) with 24.
Current form
PAU, last 4: WDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Clermont Foot, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Montpellier, last 4: WWDL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Laval, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Montpellier, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for PAU.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give PAU 1.1 xG, Montpellier 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – PAU 32%, draw 26%, Montpellier 42%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Montpellier to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: PAU 1–1 Montpellier. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
PAU32%fair 3.13 · @2.62
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.25
Montpellier42%fair 2.37 · @2.62
2.63Expected goals
1.14PAU xG
1.49Montpellier xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–08%
0–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: PAU 1.1 – 1.5 Montpellier expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Montpellier to win✗
42%
2.37
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.74
1.70
Draw no bet
Montpellier (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
PAU +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Montpellier to score first✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Montpellier / FT Montpellier✗
27%
3.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.96
–
Recent results
PAU – last 4
WDLL
13 Mar
@ Clermont Foot
1–0
W
6 Mar
vs Bastia
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Estac Troyes
3–4
L
13 Feb
vs Boulogne
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Montpellier – last 4
WWDL
13 Mar
vs Laval
2–0
W
6 Mar
@ Nancy
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs Reims
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Rodez
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PAU and Montpellier.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win PAU vs Montpellier?
On our numbers PAU have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Montpellier 42%.
How many goals will there be in PAU vs Montpellier?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for PAU vs Montpellier?
Our predicted score is PAU 1–1 Montpellier, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is PAU vs Montpellier?
PAU vs Montpellier (Ligue 2) kicks off on Friday 20 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Nouste Camp.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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