Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Alaves to win @ 4.00 – our chance 32% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultValencia to win41% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.23
Valencia vs Alaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alaves travel to face Valencia on Sunday 8 March in the La Liga, with Estadio de Mestalla the venue – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, Valencia are 19th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 12 matches; Alaves are 12th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Valencia, last 3: WLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Osasuna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valencia 1.3 xG, Alaves 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valencia 41%, draw 27%, Alaves 32%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Alaves to win @4.00 – the bookmaker implies 25%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valencia 1–1 Alaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valencia41%fair 2.41 · @2.00
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @3.10
Alaves32%fair 3.17 · @4.00
2.43Expected goals
1.26Valencia xG
1.17Alaves xG
54%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Valencia 1.3 – 1.2 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia to win
41%
2.41
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
54%
1.85
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Valencia (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
59%
1.71
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
90%
1.11
1.05
First team to score
Valencia to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia / FT Valencia
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.23
–
Recent results
Valencia – last 3
WLW
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 2
LD
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia and Alaves.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Valencia vs Alaves?
On our numbers Valencia have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alaves 32%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Alaves?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Valencia 1–1 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
