Value bet: Alaves to win @ 2.54 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlaves to win ✗43% · @2.54
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Alaves vs Osasuna: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Osasuna travel to face Alaves on Sunday 5 April in the La Liga, with Estadio Mendizorrotza the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Osasuna are 16th (lower half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alaves, last 4: WDLD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Celta Vigo, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.5 xG, Osasuna 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 43%, draw 26%, Osasuna 31%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Alaves to win @2.54 – the bookmaker implies 39%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–1 Osasuna. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves43%fair 2.30 · @2.54
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.10
Osasuna31%fair 3.24 · @2.82
2.59Expected goals
1.51Alaves xG
1.08Osasuna xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.5 – 1.1 Osasuna expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alaves to win✗
43%
2.30
2.54 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.90
Draw no bet
Alaves (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Osasuna +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Alaves to score first
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alaves / FT Alaves✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.84
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 4
WDLD
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Osasuna – last 2
LD
1 Mar
@ Valencia
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Elche
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Osasuna.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alaves vs Osasuna?
On our numbers Alaves have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Osasuna 31%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Osasuna?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Osasuna?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–1 Osasuna, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Osasuna?
Alaves vs Osasuna (La Liga) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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