Real Madrid vs Alaves: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 21 April the La Liga brings Real Madrid against Alaves at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. Kick-off: 20:30 WAT. In the table, Real Madrid are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 12 matches; Alaves are 12th (lower half) with 13. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Real Madrid, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Bayern München, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Alaves, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Osasuna, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Madrid 2.3 xG, Alaves 0.8 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 51% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Madrid 70%, draw 17%, Alaves 13%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.83.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Real Madrid to win (70%, odds 1.27). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Madrid 2–0 Alaves. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Madrid70%fair 1.43 · @1.27
Draw17%fair 5.81 · @5.50
Alaves13%fair 7.89 · @9.80
3.10Expected goals
2.27Real Madrid xG
0.84Alaves xG
51%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–010%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 2.3 – 0.8 Alaves expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
70%
1.43
1.27
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.83
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Real Madrid -1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.25
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.36
–
Recent results
Real Madrid – last 6
LDLWWW
15 Apr
@ Bayern München
3–4
L
10 Apr
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
6 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alaves – last 5
DWDLD
5 Apr
vs Osasuna
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Girona
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Alaves.
Our pick is Real Madrid to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Alaves?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Alaves 13%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Alaves?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–0 Alaves, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Real Madrid vs Alaves (La Liga) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Mallorca1
Girona2