Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Barcelona to win @ 2.08 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBarcelona to win ✗53% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.40
Alaves vs Barcelona: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alaves welcome Barcelona to Estadio Mendizorrotza for a La Liga fixture on Wednesday 13 May (20:30 WAT). In the table, Alaves are 12th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Barcelona are 1st (leading the league) with 33. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alaves, last 5: DLDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Elche, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Barcelona, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Celta Vigo, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.7 a game lately.
Momentum favours Barcelona, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Alaves.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alaves 1.3 xG, Barcelona 2.1 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 64% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alaves 25%, draw 21%, Barcelona 53%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.42.
Price worth noting: Barcelona to win @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alaves 1–2 Barcelona. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alaves25%fair 3.93 · @3.10
Draw21%fair 4.71 · @3.75
Barcelona53%fair 1.88 · @2.08
3.38Expected goals
1.28Alaves xG
2.10Barcelona xG
64%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
2–26%
From our goals model: Alaves 1.3 – 2.1 Barcelona expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barcelona to win✗
53%
1.88
2.08 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.55
1.42
Draw no bet
Barcelona (draw no bet)✗
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Alaves +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.25
First team to score
Barcelona to score first✗
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Barcelona ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barcelona / FT Barcelona✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.40
–
Recent results
Alaves – last 6
DLDWDL
9 May
@ Elche
1–1
D
21 Apr
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Osasuna
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Celta Vigo
4–3
W
13 Mar
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Levante
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Barcelona – last 6
WWLWWW
22 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
1–0
W
14 Apr
@ Atletico Madrid
2–1
W
8 Apr
vs Atletico Madrid
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Rayo Vallecano
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Newcastle
7–2
W
15 Mar
vs Sevilla
5–2
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alaves and Barcelona.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Alaves vs Barcelona?
On our numbers Alaves have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Barcelona 53%.
How many goals will there be in Alaves vs Barcelona?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alaves vs Barcelona?
Our predicted score is Alaves 1–2 Barcelona, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Alaves vs Barcelona?
Alaves vs Barcelona (La Liga) kicks off on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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