Real Madrid vs Oviedo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Madrid welcome Oviedo to Estadio Santiago Bernabéu for a La Liga fixture on Thursday 14 May (20:30 WAT).
Current form
Real Madrid, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Alaves, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Oviedo, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Villarreal, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Real Madrid, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Oviedo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Real Madrid 2.5 xG, Oviedo 0.8 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 63% and GG at 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Real Madrid 73%, draw 18%, Oviedo 9%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Real Madrid to win (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Real Madrid73%fair 1.36 · @1.30
Draw18%fair 5.69 · @5.40
Oviedo9%fair 11.13 · @8.80
3.27Expected goals
2.49Real Madrid xG
0.78Oviedo xG
55%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
3–010%
1–09%
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
From our goals model: Real Madrid 2.5 – 0.8 Oviedo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Real Madrid
Oviedo
Attack vs La Liga average
+52%
-13%
Goals conceded vs average
-38%
+1%
Our expected goals here
2.89
0.89
Our own ratings from every La Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
73%
1.36
1.30
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.80
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Real Madrid -1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first✓
73%
1.37
–
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✓
51%
1.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.87
–
Recent results
Real Madrid – last 6
WLDLWW
21 Apr
vs Alaves
2–1
W
15 Apr
@ Bayern München
3–4
L
10 Apr
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 Apr
vs Bayern München
1–2
L
17 Mar
@ Manchester City
2–1
W
11 Mar
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Oviedo – last 6
DWDLDL
23 Apr
vs Villarreal
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Sevilla
1–0
W
9 Mar
@ Espanyol
1–1
D
4 Mar
@ Rayo Vallecano
0–3
L
21 Feb
@ Real Sociedad
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Athletic Club
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Madrid and Oviedo.
Our pick is Real Madrid to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
On our numbers Real Madrid have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Oviedo 9%.
How many goals will there be in Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
Our predicted score is Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
Real Madrid vs Oviedo (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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