Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Rayo Vallecano travel to face Valencia on Thursday 14 May in the La Liga, with Estadio de Mestalla the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Valencia are 19th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 12 matches; Rayo Vallecano are 14th (lower half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Valencia, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Athletic Club, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Rayo Vallecano, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Girona, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Valencia 1.4 xG, Rayo Vallecano 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Valencia 42%, draw 27%, Rayo Vallecano 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Valencia42%fair 2.37 · @2.22
Draw27%fair 3.73 · @3.15
Rayo Vallecano31%fair 3.22 · @3.30
2.49Expected goals
1.36Valencia xG
1.13Rayo Vallecano xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Valencia 1.4 – 1.1 Rayo Vallecano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Attack vs La Liga average
-28%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
+6%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.39
1.16
Our own ratings from every La Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Valencia to win✗
42%
2.37
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
1.80
Draw no bet
Valencia (draw no bet)
58%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Rayo Vallecano +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Valencia to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Valencia / FT Valencia✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.54
–
Recent results
Valencia – last 6
WDLWLW
10 May
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
21 Apr
@ Mallorca
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Celta Vigo
2–3
L
1 Mar
vs Osasuna
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Villarreal
1–2
L
15 Feb
@ Levante
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano – last 6
DWWDWL
11 May
vs Girona
1–1
D
7 May
@ Strasbourg
1–0
W
30 Apr
vs Strasbourg
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Real Sociedad
3–3
D
23 Apr
vs Espanyol
1–0
W
16 Apr
@ AEK Athens FC
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Valencia and Rayo Vallecano.
What is the prediction for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
On our numbers Valencia have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Rayo Vallecano 31%.
How many goals will there be in Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our predicted score is Valencia 1–1 Rayo Vallecano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano?
Valencia vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga) kicks off on Thursday 14 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Mestalla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Girona1
Oviedo0