Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultAlmeria to win55% · @1.89
Double chanceAlmeria or draw78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.12
Almeria vs Malaga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Malaga travel to face Almeria on Sunday 19 April in the Segunda División, with UD Almería Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Almeria, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Leganes, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Malaga, last 4: DWWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with FC Andorra, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Almeria 1.8 xG, Malaga 1.1 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Almeria 55%, draw 23%, Malaga 22%.
Lower-risk option: Almeria or draw (78%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Almeria or draw (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Almeria 1–1 Malaga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Almeria55%fair 1.83 · @1.89
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.75
Malaga22%fair 4.55 · @3.65
2.89Expected goals
1.84Almeria xG
1.05Malaga xG
59%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: Almeria 1.8 – 1.1 Malaga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Almeria
Malaga
Attack vs Segunda División average
+32%
+5%
Goals conceded vs average
-26%
-18%
Our expected goals here
1.70
0.93
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Almeria to win
55%
1.83
1.89
Double chance
Almeria or draw
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.71
1.55
Draw no bet
Almeria (draw no bet)
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
Malaga +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
65%
1.54
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
81%
1.23
1.20
First team to score
Almeria to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Almeria ahead at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Almeria / FT Almeria
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.12
–
Recent results
Almeria – last 6
WLWWWD
5 Apr
vs Leganes
2–1
W
2 Apr
@ Castellón
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Real Sociedad II
5–1
W
20 Mar
@ Huesca
3–1
W
9 Mar
vs Cultural Leonesa
3–0
W
27 Feb
@ Albacete
1–1
D
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Malaga – last 4
DWWL
1 Apr
@ FC Andorra
3–3
D
15 Mar
vs Huesca
5–3
W
22 Feb
vs Albacete
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Real Sociedad II
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Almeria and Malaga.
Our pick is Almeria or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Almeria vs Malaga?
On our numbers Almeria have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Malaga 22%.
How many goals will there be in Almeria vs Malaga?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Almeria vs Malaga?
Our predicted score is Almeria 1–1 Malaga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Almeria vs Malaga?
Almeria vs Malaga (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at UD Almería Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Huesca0