Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.90 – our chance 56% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✗46% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.76
Benfica vs FC Porto: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Benfica welcome FC Porto to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica for a Primeira Liga fixture on Sunday 8 March (19:00 WAT). In the table, Benfica are 2nd, among the top four, on 28 points after 11 matches; FC Porto are 1st (leading the league) with 33.
Current form
Benfica, last 4: WLLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over GIL Vicente, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
FC Porto, last 4: LWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Sporting CP, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours FC Porto, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.5 for Benfica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 1.5 xG, FC Porto 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 46%, draw 25%, FC Porto 29%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 1–1 FC Porto. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica46%fair 2.18 · @2.14
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.20
FC Porto29%fair 3.49 · @3.45
2.67Expected goals
1.55Benfica xG
1.13FC Porto xG
56%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Benfica 1.5 – 1.1 FC Porto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✗
46%
2.18
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.14
1.07
First team to score
Benfica to score first✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
28%
3.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 4
WLLW
2 Mar
@ GIL Vicente
2–1
W
25 Feb
@ Real Madrid
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Real Madrid
0–1
L
13 Feb
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
FC Porto – last 4
LWWW
3 Mar
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Arouca
3–1
W
22 Feb
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Nacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and FC Porto.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Benfica vs FC Porto?
On our numbers Benfica have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and FC Porto 29%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs FC Porto?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs FC Porto?
Our predicted score is Benfica 1–1 FC Porto, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs FC Porto?
Benfica vs FC Porto (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
