Arouca vs Estrela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 April the Primeira Liga brings Arouca against Estrela at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Estrela are 12th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Arouca, last 4: WLLW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Estoril, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Estrela, last 4: WLDL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Casa Pia, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Arouca, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Estrela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.7 xG, Estrela 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 48%, draw 25%, Estrela 27%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Estrela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca48%fair 2.10 · @2.08
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.35
Estrela27%fair 3.67 · @3.40
2.81Expected goals
1.68Arouca xG
1.13Estrela xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
0–17%
1–26%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.7 – 1.1 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
48%
2.10
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.70
Draw no bet
Arouca (draw no bet)✓
64%
1.57
–
Asian handicap
Estrela +1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.12
First team to score
Arouca to score first✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
31%
3.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.41
–
Recent results
Arouca – last 4
WLLW
6 Apr
vs Estoril
3–2
W
6 Mar
@ Famalicao
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Nacional
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Estrela – last 4
WLDL
20 Mar
vs Casa Pia
4–0
W
15 Mar
@ Rio Ave
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
20 Feb
vs Tondela
0–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Estrela.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Arouca have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Estrela 27%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estrela?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Arouca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Tondela