FC Porto 74%Draw 19%Tondela 7%Expected goals 2.11 – 0.62
77%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.20
8/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultFC Porto to win74% · @1.16
Double chanceFC Porto or draw93% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.42
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–010% · fair 9.78
FC Porto vs Tondela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Sunday 19 April: FC Porto v Tondela in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio Do Dragão.
Current form
FC Porto, last 5: LDWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nottingham Forest, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Tondela, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with GIL Vicente, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 2.1 xG, Tondela 0.6 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 74%, draw 19%, Tondela 7%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.42.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 2–0 Tondela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Porto74%fair 1.36 · @1.16
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @6.00
Tondela7%fair 13.62 · @23.00
2.73Expected goals
2.11FC Porto xG
0.62Tondela xG
48%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–015%
1–014%
3–010%
2–19%
1–19%
0–06%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.1 – 0.6 Tondela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win
74%
1.36
1.16
Double chance
FC Porto or draw
93%
1.08
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.42
Draw no bet
FC Porto (draw no bet)
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto -1 (Asian handicap)
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
54%
1.84
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
83%
1.21
1.18
First team to score
FC Porto to score first
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0
10%
9.78
–
Recent results
FC Porto – last 6
LDWWDL
16 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
0–1
L
9 Apr
vs Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs VfB Stuttgart
2–0
W
12 Mar
@ VfB Stuttgart
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Benfica
2–2
D
3 Mar
@ Sporting CP
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Tondela – last 6
DLLDWD
13 Apr
vs GIL Vicente
2–2
D
3 Apr
@ Guimaraes
0–5
L
9 Mar
vs Rio Ave
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Santa Clara
2–2
D
20 Feb
@ Estrela
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs Alverca
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Tondela.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Porto vs Tondela?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tondela 7%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Tondela?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Tondela?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–0 Tondela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Tondela?
FC Porto vs Tondela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Do Dragão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
