Value bet: Farense to win @ 3.15 – our chance 39% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFarense to win ✗39% · @3.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.35
Chaves vs Farense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 22 February: Chaves v Farense in the Segunda Liga, played at Estadio Municipal de Chaves. In the table, Chaves are 17th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Farense are 8th (upper half) with 15.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Chaves 1.2 xG, Farense 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Chaves 36%, draw 26%, Farense 39%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Farense to win @3.15 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Chaves 1–1 Farense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Chaves36%fair 2.79 · @2.26
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.00
Farense39%fair 2.60 · @3.15
2.68Expected goals
1.24Chaves xG
1.44Farense xG
59%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–09%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Chaves 1.2 – 1.4 Farense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Chaves
Farense
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-2%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
+40%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.41
1.93
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win✗
39%
2.60
3.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Farense (draw no bet)✗
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Chaves +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Farense to score first✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense✗
25%
4.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.35
–
Recent results
Chaves – last 1
L
14 Feb
@ Feirense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Farense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Farense.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Chaves vs Farense?
On our numbers Chaves have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Farense 39%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Farense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Farense?
Our predicted score is Chaves 1–1 Farense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Farense?
Chaves vs Farense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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