Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 4.20 – our chance 30% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFelgueiras 1932 to win ✗45% · @1.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.33
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel travel to face Felgueiras 1932 on Sunday 22 February in the Segunda Liga, with Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos the venue – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Felgueiras 1932 are 15th, lower half, on 8 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Felgueiras 1932 1.3 xG, Penafiel 1.4 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Felgueiras 1932 45%, draw 24%, Penafiel 30%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @4.20 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (72%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Felgueiras 1932 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Felgueiras 193245%fair 2.21 · @1.82
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.30
Penafiel30%fair 3.30 · @4.20
2.69Expected goals
1.32Felgueiras 1932 xG
1.37Penafiel xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Felgueiras 1932 1.3 – 1.4 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Felgueiras 1932
Penafiel
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-3%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
+9%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.24
1.96
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Felgueiras 1932 to win✗
45%
2.21
1.82
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.74
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Felgueiras 1932 (draw no bet)
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Felgueiras 1932 +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.36
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.33
–
Recent results
Felgueiras 1932
No recent results on record.
Penafiel – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Felgueiras 1932 and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Felgueiras 1932 have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penafiel 30%.
How many goals will there be in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Felgueiras 1932 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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