Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.00 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBenfica B to win ✗37% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.91
Penafiel vs Benfica B: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel welcome Benfica B to Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril for a Segunda Liga fixture on Sunday 1 March (19:00 WAT). In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; Benfica B are 3rd (among the top four) with 20. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.3 xG, Benfica B 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 37%, draw 26%, Benfica B 37%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–1 Benfica B. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel37%fair 2.69 · @3.00
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.20
Benfica B37%fair 2.69 · @2.24
2.58Expected goals
1.35Penafiel xG
1.23Benfica B xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.3 – 1.2 Benfica B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penafiel
Benfica B
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+48%
+7%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-21%
Our expected goals here
1.56
1.25
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica B to win✗
37%
2.69
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.69
1.70
Draw no bet
Benfica B (draw no bet)
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Benfica B +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.91
–
Recent results
Penafiel – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Benfica B – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Torreense
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and Benfica B.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Penafiel vs Benfica B?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Benfica B 37%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Benfica B?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Benfica B?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Benfica B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Benfica B?
Penafiel vs Benfica B (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Academico Viseu3
Maritimo1
Pacos Ferreira0
Oliveirense0