Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultFarense to win ✓50% · @1.88
Double chanceFarense or draw ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 10.97
Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lusitânia Lourosa travel to face Farense on Sunday 1 March in the Segunda Liga, with Estádio de São Lúis the venue – the ball rolls at 12:00 WAT. In the table, Farense are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Farense 1.5 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Farense 50%, draw 26%, Lusitânia Lourosa 24%.
Lower-risk option: Farense or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Farense or draw (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Farense 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Farense50%fair 1.99 · @1.88
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.25
Lusitânia Lourosa24%fair 4.21 · @4.00
2.58Expected goals
1.48Farense xG
1.10Lusitânia Lourosa xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–18%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Farense 1.5 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Farense
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+13%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
+7%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.39
1.30
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win✓
50%
1.99
1.88
Double chance
Farense or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Draw no bet
Farense (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Lusitânia Lourosa +1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Farense to score first✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense✓
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
9%
10.97
–
Recent results
Farense – last 1
L
22 Feb
@ Chaves
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Feirense
1–0
W
16 Feb
@ Penafiel
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Farense and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Farense or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Farense have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lusitânia Lourosa 24%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Farense 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Farense vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio de São Lúis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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