Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.25 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +28%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✗39% · @3.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓72% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.26
Feirense vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Feirense welcome Penafiel to Estadio Marcolino de Castro for a Segunda Liga fixture on Sunday 15 March (19:00 WAT). In the table, Feirense are 18th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Feirense, last 4: LDLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Benfica B, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Penafiel, last 3: DDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Benfica B, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Feirense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Feirense 0.9 xG, Penafiel 1.2 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Feirense 33%, draw 28%, Penafiel 39%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.88, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Feirense 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Feirense33%fair 3.02 · @2.15
Draw28%fair 3.62 · @2.90
Penafiel39%fair 2.55 · @3.25
2.12Expected goals
0.87Feirense xG
1.25Penafiel xG
53%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–115%
1–113%
0–012%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Feirense 0.9 – 1.2 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Feirense
Penafiel
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
-47%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
-4%
Our expected goals here
0.69
1.46
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
39%
2.55
3.25 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Feirense +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.26
–
Recent results
Feirense – last 4
LDLW
9 Mar
@ Benfica B
0–3
L
2 Mar
vs Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
14 Feb
vs Chaves
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 3
DDW
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Feirense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Feirense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Feirense have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Penafiel 39%.
How many goals will there be in Feirense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Feirense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Feirense 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Feirense vs Penafiel?
Feirense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcolino de Castro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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