Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSporting CP B to win ✗39% · @2.18
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.31
Sporting CP B vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penafiel travel to face Sporting CP B on Saturday 4 April in the Segunda Liga, with CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira the venue – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Sporting CP B are 2nd, among the top four, on 22 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sporting CP B, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Feirense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Penafiel, last 4: LDDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Feirense, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sporting CP B 1.3 xG, Penafiel 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sporting CP B 39%, draw 26%, Penafiel 35%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sporting CP B 1–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sporting CP B39%fair 2.55 · @2.18
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.15
Penafiel35%fair 2.89 · @3.20
2.48Expected goals
1.26Sporting CP B xG
1.22Penafiel xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–08%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Sporting CP B 1.3 – 1.2 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+7%
+48%
Goals conceded vs average
-22%
-4%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.41
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sporting CP B to win✗
39%
2.55
2.18
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Draw no bet
Sporting CP B (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Penafiel +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Sporting CP B to score first✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sporting CP B / FT Sporting CP B✗
21%
4.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.31
–
Recent results
Sporting CP B – last 6
WLLLLW
22 Mar
@ Feirense
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Chaves
0–1
L
8 Mar
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Leixoes
0–1
L
21 Feb
@ Maritimo
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Portimonense
4–3
W
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 4
LDDW
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sporting CP B and Penafiel.
What is the prediction for Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Sporting CP B have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penafiel 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Sporting CP B 1–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Sporting CP B vs Penafiel?
Sporting CP B vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at CGD Stadium Aurelio Pereira.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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