Penafiel 51%Draw 23%FC Porto B 26%Expected goals 1.78 – 0.96
73%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.33
8/10Rating
1.33Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.28 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win51% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.18
Penafiel vs FC Porto B: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC Porto B travel to face Penafiel on Sunday 26 April in the Segunda Liga, with Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; FC Porto B are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Penafiel, last 5: WWLDD Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Academico Viseu, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
FC Porto B, last 5: LDWDL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Leixoes, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for FC Porto B.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.8 xG, FC Porto B 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 51%, draw 23%, FC Porto B 26%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–1 FC Porto B. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel51%fair 1.98 · @2.28
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.15
FC Porto B26%fair 3.82 · @3.00
2.74Expected goals
1.78Penafiel xG
0.96FC Porto B xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.8 – 1.0 FC Porto B expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penafiel
FC Porto B
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+48%
-24%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+17%
Our expected goals here
2.32
0.89
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win
51%
1.98
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.68
1.73
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto B +1.5 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel
35%
2.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.18
–
Recent results
Penafiel – last 6
WWLDDW
11 Apr
vs Academico Viseu
4–3
W
4 Apr
@ Sporting CP B
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Feirense
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Benfica B
1–1
D
22 Feb
@ Felgueiras 1932
0–0
D
16 Feb
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
FC Porto B – last 6
LDWDLW
20 Apr
vs Leixoes
0–3
L
13 Apr
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Chaves
3–0
W
16 Mar
vs Oliveirense
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Maritimo
1–2
L
23 Feb
vs Pacos Ferreira
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and FC Porto B.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 23% and FC Porto B 26%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 FC Porto B, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs FC Porto B?
Penafiel vs FC Porto B (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 26 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pacos Ferreira0
Maritimo