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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Morecambe v Carlisle: numbers & prediction

National League · England · Mazuma Mobile Stadium

Morecambe

WLWDW
2–2
FT

Carlisle

DWWLW
Morecambe 29%Draw 20%Carlisle 51% Expected goals 1.55 – 1.90
68%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.44Odds

Picks by market

ResultCarlisle to win ✗51% · @1.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓68% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓65% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.26

Morecambe vs Carlisle: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Monday 6 April the National League brings Morecambe against Carlisle at Mazuma Mobile Stadium. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Morecambe, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Rochdale, away. The attack is flying at 3.4 goals per game.

Carlisle, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Gateshead, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Morecambe 1.6 xG, Carlisle 1.9 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Morecambe 29%, draw 20%, Carlisle 51%.
  • GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morecambe 1–1 Carlisle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Morecambe29%fair 3.46 · @3.65
Draw20%fair 4.93 · @3.80
Carlisle51%fair 1.97 · @1.77
3.46Expected goals
1.55Morecambe xG
1.90Carlisle xG
68%Both score
65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%

From our goals model: Morecambe 1.6 – 1.9 Carlisle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

MorecambeCarlisle
Attack vs National League average+22%+21%
Goals conceded vs average+11%-15%
Our expected goals here1.821.91

Our own ratings from every National League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCarlisle to win ✗51%1.971.77
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80%1.251.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓68%1.471.44
Draw no betCarlisle (draw no bet)64%1.57–
Asian handicapMorecambe +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.48–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓65%1.541.48
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗56%1.781.62
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓74%1.351.25
First team to scoreCarlisle to score first ✗53%1.87–
Half-time resultCarlisle ahead at half-time ✗36%2.75–
Half-time / full-timeHT Carlisle / FT Carlisle ✗28%3.52–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%11.26–

Recent results

Morecambe – last 5

WLWDW
3 Apr@ Rochdale4–2W
25 Marvs Hartlepool2–3L
3 Mar@ Wealdstone3–2W
25 Feb@ Gateshead4–4D
21 Febvs Eastleigh4–0W
3.4Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
80%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Carlisle – last 5

DWWLW
3 Aprvs Gateshead0–0D
24 Mar@ FC Halifax Town1–0W
10 Mar@ Aldershot Town2–0W
25 Feb@ Hartlepool1–3L
21 Febvs Yeovil Town3–0W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Morecambe and Carlisle.

Morecambe vs Carlisle head-to-head page →

National League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Boreham Wood161420+2744
2Harrogate Town161024+1132
3Southend16853+1129
4AFC Fylde16925+629
5Yeovil Town16844+1528
6Worthing16844+728
7Altrincham16916028
8Carlisle16754+926
9Barrow15744+725
10FC Halifax Town16736+824
11Sutton Utd16736-124
12Woking16637+121
13Kidderminster Harriers16565+121
14Aldershot Town16637021
15AFC Hornchurch16709-821
16Forest Green14545-119
17Eastleigh16547-619
18Wealdstone16538-618
19Boston United16538-818
20Tamworth15528-717
21Hartlepool165011-915
22Solihull Moors164111-2113
23Scunthorpe153111-1110
24Gateshead151113-254

More National League predictions

League hub
FT Brackley Town1 Boston United1 137%2.90X24%3.30239%2.20 1.5–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Braintree0 Woking0 129%3.55X25%3.35246%1.95 1.3–1.5xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗
FT Eastleigh2 Yeovil Town1 134%2.30X25%3.20241%2.85 1.3–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.30 ✓
FT FC Halifax Town2 Tamworth2 150%2.00X23%3.35226%3.35 1.8–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Gateshead2 Scunthorpe0 131%3.00X24%3.75245%2.00 1.4–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.36 ✗
FT Hartlepool0 Rochdale0 125%3.95X25%3.35250%1.83 1.2–1.6xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✗
FT Solihull Moors4 Boreham Wood1 119%3.60X19%3.65262%1.83 1.2–2.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 67%@1.45 ✓
FT Sutton Utd0 Southend3 126%4.00X24%3.70250%1.73 1.4–1.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 80%@1.20 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Morecambe vs Carlisle?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Morecambe vs Carlisle?

On our numbers Morecambe have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Carlisle 51%.

How many goals will there be in Morecambe vs Carlisle?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Morecambe vs Carlisle?

Our predicted score is Morecambe 1–1 Carlisle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Morecambe vs Carlisle?

Morecambe vs Carlisle (National League) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Mazuma Mobile Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.