Value bet: Buxton to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBuxton to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.74
Southport vs Buxton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Southport welcome Buxton to Haig Avenue for a National League North fixture on Tuesday 17 February (20:45 WAT). In the table, Southport are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Buxton are 7th (upper half) with 27. There are 17 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Southport 1.3 xG, Buxton 1.7 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 55% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Southport 33%, draw 24%, Buxton 43%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Buxton to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southport 1–1 Buxton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Southport33%fair 3.01 · @2.50
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.30
Buxton43%fair 2.35 · @2.50
2.98Expected goals
1.30Southport xG
1.68Buxton xG
64%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–17%
0–27%
1–07%
From our goals model: Southport 1.3 – 1.7 Buxton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Buxton to win✗
43%
2.35
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.56
1.55
Draw no bet
Buxton (draw no bet)
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Southport +1 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
1.40
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
First team to score
Buxton to score first✗
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Buxton / FT Buxton✗
28%
3.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.74
–
Recent results
Southport
No recent results on record.
Buxton
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southport and Buxton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Southport vs Buxton?
On our numbers Southport have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Buxton 43%.
How many goals will there be in Southport vs Buxton?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southport vs Buxton?
Our predicted score is Southport 1–1 Buxton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Southport vs Buxton?
Southport vs Buxton (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 17 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Haig Avenue.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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