Merthyr Town 35%Draw 26%Chester 39%Expected goals 1.40 – 1.47
65%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Picks by market
ResultChester to win ✓39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 11.67
Merthyr Town vs Chester: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Chester travel to face Merthyr Town on Tuesday 10 March in the National League North, with Penydarren Park the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Merthyr Town are 17th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Chester are 8th (upper half) with 26.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Merthyr Town 1.4 xG, Chester 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Merthyr Town 35%, draw 26%, Chester 39%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (65%, odds 1.48). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merthyr Town 1–1 Chester. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Merthyr Town35%fair 2.86 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.55
Chester39%fair 2.54 · @2.20
2.87Expected goals
1.40Merthyr Town xG
1.47Chester xG
61%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–18%
2–18%
1–08%
0–26%
From our goals model: Merthyr Town 1.4 – 1.5 Chester expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chester to win✓
39%
2.54
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.50
Draw no bet
Chester (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Merthyr Town +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
First team to score
Chester to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chester / FT Chester✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Merthyr Town – last 2
WL
24 Feb
@ Leamington
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Alfreton Town
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chester – last 2
LW
24 Feb
@ Hereford
2–5
L
21 Feb
@ Leamington
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Merthyr Town and Chester.
What is the prediction for Merthyr Town vs Chester?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chester?
On our numbers Merthyr Town have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Chester 39%.
How many goals will there be in Merthyr Town vs Chester?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Merthyr Town vs Chester?
Our predicted score is Merthyr Town 1–1 Chester, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Merthyr Town vs Chester?
Merthyr Town vs Chester (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 10 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Penydarren Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
AFC Fylde2
Alfreton Town1
Curzon Ashton2
Leamington1
Kidderminster Harriers4
Peterborough Sports0