Marine v Merthyr Town Prediction & Expected Goals (14 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMarine to win ✗45% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.45

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.03

Marine vs Merthyr Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Merthyr Town travel to face Marine on Tuesday 14 April in the National League North, with Rossett Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Marine are 16th, lower half, on 19 points after 15 matches; Merthyr Town are 17th (lower half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Marine, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Hereford, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Merthyr Town, last 5: LDLWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Hereford, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Marine 1.7 xG, Merthyr Town 1.4 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 60% for three or more goals, 62% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Marine 45%, draw 24%, Merthyr Town 32%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.45.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marine 1–1 Merthyr Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Marine45%fair 2.24 · @2.10

Draw24%fair 4.21 · @3.60

Merthyr Town32%fair 3.16 · @2.88

3.12Expected goals

1.70Marine xG

1.42Merthyr Town xG

62%Both score

60%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

2–19%

1–28%

1–08%

2–26%

2–06%

From our goals model: Marine 1.7 – 1.4 Merthyr Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Marine to win ✗	45%	2.24	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	76%	1.31	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	62%	1.62	1.45
Draw no bet	Marine (draw no bet) ✗	59%	1.71	–
Asian handicap	Merthyr Town +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	71%	1.42	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	81%	1.24	1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	60%	1.67	1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	62%	1.61	1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	79%	1.26	–
First team to score	Marine to score first ✗	52%	1.92	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	39%	2.59	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Marine / FT Marine ✗	27%	3.74	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.03	–

Marine – last 6

LWLLDL

8 Apr	vs Hereford	0–1	L
6 Apr	vs Chorley	2–1	W
3 Apr	@ Southport	1–2	L
31 Mar	@ AFC Fylde	0–2	L
17 Mar	@ Peterborough Sports	0–0	D
10 Mar	vs Macclesfield	2–4	L

0.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Merthyr Town – last 5

LDLWL

6 Apr	@ Hereford	0–3	L
3 Apr	vs Oxford City	1–1	D
10 Mar	vs Chester	1–2	L
24 Feb	@ Leamington	2–1	W
21 Feb	@ Alfreton Town	2–3	L

1.2Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

80%Both scored

80%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	+10	32
2	Hereford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	+15	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Hednesford Town	16	8	3	5	+8	27
6	King's Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	+6	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	+5	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	-2	22
11	AFC Telford United	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	-1	20
14	Worksop Town	15	6	2	7	-1	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	-8	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	0	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	-1	19
18	Brackley Town	16	5	4	7	-9	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	-4	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	-3	16
21	Radcliffe	15	5	1	9	-8	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	-9	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	-15	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	-15	10

Team

Pts

+10

+14

+15

+10

-2

-4

-1

-1

-8

-1

-9

-4

-3

-8

-9

-15

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marine vs Merthyr Town?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Marine vs Merthyr Town?

On our numbers Marine have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Merthyr Town 32%.

How many goals will there be in Marine vs Merthyr Town?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Marine vs Merthyr Town?

Our predicted score is Marine 1–1 Merthyr Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is Marine vs Merthyr Town?

Marine vs Merthyr Town (National League North) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Rossett Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Marine v Merthyr Town: numbers & prediction