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Tłuchowia v Pogoń Szczecin II: numbers & prediction

III Liga Group 2 · Poland · Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo

Tłuchowia

LLWL
3–3
FT

Pogoń Szczecin II

DLLLW
Tłuchowia 30%Draw 22%Pogoń Szczecin II 48% Expected goals 1.47 – 1.98
62%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.65Odds

Picks by market

ResultPogoń Szczecin II to win ✗48% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.78
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62% · @1.65
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.94

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

11:00 WAT, Friday 1 May: Tłuchowia v Pogoń Szczecin II in the III Liga Group 2, played at Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo.

Current form

Tłuchowia, last 4: LLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Victoria Września, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Pogoń Szczecin II, last 5: DLLLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Lech Poznań II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Tłuchowia 1.5 xG, Pogoń Szczecin II 2.0 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 56% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Tłuchowia 30%, draw 22%, Pogoń Szczecin II 48%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tłuchowia 1–2 Pogoń Szczecin II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Tłuchowia30%fair 3.29 · @3.00
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.60
Pogoń Szczecin II48%fair 2.08 · @2.00
3.45Expected goals
1.47Tłuchowia xG
1.98Pogoń Szczecin II xG
56%Both score
62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
0–26%

From our goals model: Tłuchowia 1.5 – 2.0 Pogoń Szczecin II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultPogoń Szczecin II to win ✗48%2.082.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78%1.281.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓56%1.78–
Draw no betPogoń Szczecin II (draw no bet)61%1.63–
Asian handicapTłuchowia +1 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.56–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62%1.611.65
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗55%1.83–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗73%1.36–
First team to scorePogoń Szczecin II to score first56%1.80–
Half-time resultPogoń Szczecin II ahead at half-time ✗38%2.60–
Half-time / full-timeHT Pogoń Szczecin II / FT Pogoń Szczecin II ✗31%3.25–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9%10.94–

Recent results

Tłuchowia – last 4

LLWL
19 Apr@ Victoria Września0–2L
1 Aprvs Zawisza Bydgoszcz0–1L
27 Marvs Lipno Stęszew3–1W
28 Feb@ Flota Świnoujście0–1L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Pogoń Szczecin II – last 6

DLLLWL
25 Aprvs Lech Poznań II2–2D
15 Aprvs Luzino1–2L
12 Aprvs Victoria Września1–2L
3 Apr@ Unia Swarzędz0–1L
22 Marvs Stargard Szczeciński3–0W
13 Mar@ Zawisza Bydgoszcz1–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Tłuchowia and Pogoń Szczecin II.

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II head-to-head page →

More III Liga Group 2 predictions

League hub
FT Lipno Stęszew1 Noteć Czarnków0 138%2.25X25%3.50237%2.62 1.4–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 53%@1.75 ✗
FT Wda Świecie3 Polonia Środa2 132%2.75X22%3.60246%2.10 1.4–1.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 60%@1.62 ✓
FT Unia Swarzędz0 Stargard Szczeciński0 149%1.80X22%3.70229%3.40 1.7–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 58%@1.62 ✗
FT Kluczevia Stargard2 Cartusia Kartuzy1 163%1.40X21%4.33217%5.75 1.9–0.9xG 1Kluczevia Stargard to win 63%@1.40 ✓
FT Victoria Września3 Elana Toruń2 149%1.83X24%3.70227%3.40 1.5–1.1xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 50%@1.95 ✗
FT Zawisza Bydgoszcz0 Flota Świnoujście1 171%1.28X18%5.00211%7.00 2.4–0.9xG 1Zawisza Bydgoszcz to win 71%@1.28 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.

Who will win Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

On our numbers Tłuchowia have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Pogoń Szczecin II 48%.

How many goals will there be in Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Our predicted score is Tłuchowia 1–2 Pogoń Szczecin II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II?

Tłuchowia vs Pogoń Szczecin II (III Liga Group 2) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Boisko GZS Tłuchowia Tłuchowo.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.