Value bet: Spezia to win @ 2.64 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSpezia to win ✗42% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.92
Padova vs Spezia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Tuesday 3 March: Padova v Spezia in the Serie B, played at Stadio Euganeo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Padova 1.0 xG, Spezia 1.4 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Padova 31%, draw 27%, Spezia 42%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Spezia to win @2.64 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Padova 1–1 Spezia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Padova31%fair 3.24 · @2.80
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @3.00
Spezia42%fair 2.38 · @2.64
2.40Expected goals
1.01Padova xG
1.39Spezia xG
50%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–29%
From our goals model: Padova 1.0 – 1.4 Spezia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✗
42%
2.38
2.64 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.83
Draw no bet
Spezia (draw no bet)
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Padova +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
1.06
First team to score
Spezia to score first
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✗
27%
3.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.92
–
Recent results
Padova – last 1
D
21 Feb
vs Bari
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Spezia – last 2
WL
21 Feb
@ Cesena
3–2
W
15 Feb
vs Frosinone
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Padova and Spezia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Padova vs Spezia?
On our numbers Padova have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Spezia 42%.
How many goals will there be in Padova vs Spezia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Padova vs Spezia?
Our predicted score is Padova 1–1 Spezia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Padova vs Spezia?
Padova vs Spezia (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 3 March 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Euganeo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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