Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Caen to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCaen to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceCaen or draw ✓81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.05
Caen vs Chateauroux: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Caen welcome Chateauroux to Stade Michel d'Ornano for a National 1 fixture on Friday 6 March (19:30 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Caen 2.0 xG, Chateauroux 1.0 xG – a total near 3.1. That is an open game on paper: 59% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Caen 57%, draw 24%, Chateauroux 19%.
Lower-risk option: Caen or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Caen to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Caen or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Caen 2–1 Chateauroux. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Caen57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @3.10
Chateauroux19%fair 5.26 · @3.50
3.07Expected goals
2.03Caen xG
1.04Chateauroux xG
53%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–010%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Caen 2.0 – 1.0 Chateauroux expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caen to win✗
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Caen or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.85
Draw no bet
Caen (draw no bet)
75%
1.33
–
Asian handicap
Caen -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
First team to score
Caen to score first✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Caen ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caen / FT Caen✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.05
–
Recent results
Caen – last 2
LD
20 Feb
vs Sochaux
1–3
L
13 Feb
@ Dijon
3–3
D
2.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chateauroux – last 2
LL
27 Feb
vs Gobelins
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Rouen
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caen and Chateauroux.
Our pick is Caen or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Caen vs Chateauroux?
On our numbers Caen have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chateauroux 19%.
How many goals will there be in Caen vs Chateauroux?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caen vs Chateauroux?
Our predicted score is Caen 2–1 Chateauroux, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Caen vs Chateauroux?
Caen vs Chateauroux (National 1) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Dijon1
Stade Briochin1