Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.65Odds
Picks by market
ResultEldense to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.12
Eldense vs Alcorcon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alcorcon travel to face Eldense on Sunday 22 February in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, with Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat the venue – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Eldense 1.4 xG, Alcorcon 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 37%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Eldense 45%, draw 27%, Alcorcon 28%.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.65 – longer than our fair 1.59, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Eldense 1–1 Alcorcon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Eldense45%fair 2.24 · @2.15
Draw27%fair 3.65 · @2.75
Alcorcon28%fair 3.57 · @3.70
2.41Expected goals
1.37Eldense xG
1.04Alcorcon xG
50%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Eldense 1.4 – 1.0 Alcorcon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Eldense
Alcorcon
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+9%
+25%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
-2%
Our expected goals here
1.79
1.36
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Eldense to win✗
45%
2.24
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
1.50
Draw no bet
Eldense (draw no bet)
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Alcorcon +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.60
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Eldense to score first✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Eldense / FT Eldense✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.12
–
Recent results
Eldense
No recent results on record.
Alcorcon – last 1
W
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Eldense and Alcorcon.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Eldense vs Alcorcon?
On our numbers Eldense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Alcorcon 28%.
How many goals will there be in Eldense vs Alcorcon?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Eldense vs Alcorcon?
Our predicted score is Eldense 1–1 Alcorcon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Eldense vs Alcorcon?
Eldense vs Alcorcon (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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