Alcorcon vs Hércules: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hércules travel to face Alcorcon on Sunday 5 April in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, with Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo the venue – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT. In the table, Alcorcon are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Hércules are 7th (upper half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Alcorcon, last 4: DLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Algeciras, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Hércules, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Marbella, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alcorcon 1.6 xG, Hércules 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alcorcon 51%, draw 26%, Hércules 24%.
Lower-risk option: Alcorcon or draw (76%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alcorcon or draw (76%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcorcon 1–0 Hércules. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alcorcon51%fair 1.97 · @2.05
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.95
Hércules24%fair 4.22 · @3.70
2.41Expected goals
1.56Alcorcon xG
0.85Hércules xG
52%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–112%
2–011%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.6 – 0.9 Hércules expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alcorcon
Hércules
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+25%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-7%
Our expected goals here
1.94
0.87
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✓
51%
1.97
2.05
Double chance
Alcorcon or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
2.00
Draw no bet
Alcorcon (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Hércules +1 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.27
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Alcorcon to score first✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✓
33%
3.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.76
–
Recent results
Alcorcon – last 4
DLDW
15 Mar
vs Algeciras
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Eldense
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Hércules – last 6
WLWDDL
29 Mar
vs Marbella
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Real Murcia
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Antequera
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Hércules.
Our pick is Alcorcon or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Hércules?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Hércules 24%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Hércules?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Hércules?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–0 Hércules, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Hércules?
Alcorcon vs Hércules (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Real Betis II3