Value bet: Mérida AD to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win ✓40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.43
Arenteiro vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mérida AD travel to face Arenteiro on Sunday 19 April in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio de Espiñedo the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.
Current form
Arenteiro, last 3: LDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Arenas Getxo, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Mérida AD, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Athletic Club II, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Mérida AD, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Arenteiro.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arenteiro 1.2 xG, Mérida AD 1.4 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arenteiro 35%, draw 25%, Mérida AD 40%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Mérida AD to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arenteiro 1–1 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arenteiro35%fair 2.87 · @2.35
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.25
Mérida AD40%fair 2.52 · @2.75
2.59Expected goals
1.19Arenteiro xG
1.40Mérida AD xG
58%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
0–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Arenteiro 1.2 – 1.4 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Arenteiro
Mérida AD
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-18%
+18%
Goals conceded vs average
+23%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.18
1.57
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win✓
40%
2.52
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.80
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Arenteiro +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD✓
24%
4.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.43
–
Recent results
Arenteiro – last 3
LDL
5 Apr
vs Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Celta de Vigo II
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ CF Talavera
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mérida AD – last 3
DLW
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arenteiro and Mérida AD.
What is the prediction for Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
On our numbers Arenteiro have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mérida AD 40%.
How many goals will there be in Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Our predicted score is Arenteiro 1–1 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Arenteiro vs Mérida AD?
Arenteiro vs Mérida AD (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Espiñedo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Osasuna II0
CF Talavera