Lugo vs CF Talavera: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Lugo v CF Talavera in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, played at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Current form
Lugo, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Osasuna II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
CF Talavera, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Guadalajara, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Lugo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for CF Talavera.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lugo 1.6 xG, CF Talavera 0.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lugo 54%, draw 26%, CF Talavera 20%.
Lower-risk option: Lugo or draw (80%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (66%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lugo 1–1 CF Talavera. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lugo54%fair 1.85 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.00
CF Talavera20%fair 4.99 · @3.95
2.35Expected goals
1.56Lugo xG
0.80CF Talavera xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–09%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lugo 1.6 – 0.8 CF Talavera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Lugo
CF Talavera
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+24%
-2%
Goals conceded vs average
-21%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.74
0.83
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugo to win
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Lugo or draw
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.91
2.00
Draw no bet
Lugo (draw no bet)
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
CF Talavera +1 (Asian handicap)
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.68
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
79%
1.26
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Lugo to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugo / FT Lugo
34%
2.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.90
–
Recent results
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
CF Talavera – last 3
DLW
22 Mar
@ Guadalajara
1–1
D
20 Feb
@ Ponferradina
0–1
L
15 Feb
vs Arenteiro
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugo and CF Talavera.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Lugo vs CF Talavera?
On our numbers Lugo have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 26% and CF Talavera 20%.
How many goals will there be in Lugo vs CF Talavera?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugo vs CF Talavera?
Our predicted score is Lugo 1–1 CF Talavera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lugo vs CF Talavera?
Lugo vs CF Talavera (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Anxo Carro.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Osasuna II0