Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓16% · fair 6.06
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Barakaldo travel to face Ponferradina on Sunday 19 April in the Primera División RFEF Group 1, with Estadio El Toralín the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Ponferradina are 11th, lower half, on 15 points after 11 matches; Barakaldo are 12th (lower half) with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ponferradina, last 4: DDWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Ourense CF, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Barakaldo, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Real Madrid II, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ponferradina 1.0 xG, Barakaldo 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ponferradina 40%, draw 32%, Barakaldo 28%.
Lower-risk option: Ponferradina or draw (72%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ponferradina or draw (72%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ponferradina 1–0 Barakaldo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ponferradina40%fair 2.50 · @2.15
Draw32%fair 3.09 · @3.00
Barakaldo28%fair 3.62 · @3.35
1.84Expected goals
1.04Ponferradina xG
0.80Barakaldo xG
48%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ponferradina 1.0 – 0.8 Barakaldo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Ponferradina
Barakaldo
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
-33%
-18%
Goals conceded vs average
-37%
-20%
Our expected goals here
0.74
0.56
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ponferradina to win✓
40%
2.50
2.15
Double chance
Ponferradina or draw✓
72%
1.38
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.70
Draw no bet
Ponferradina (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.69
–
Asian handicap
Barakaldo +1 (Asian handicap)
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Ponferradina to score first✓
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
16%
6.06
–
Recent results
Ponferradina – last 4
DDWW
29 Mar
@ Ourense CF
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Cacereño
0–0
D
1 Mar
@ Real Madrid II
1–0
W
20 Feb
vs CF Talavera
1–0
W
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Barakaldo – last 6
WWWLWD
27 Mar
vs Real Madrid II
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Unionistas de Salamanca
3–0
W
8 Mar
vs Ourense CF
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Arenas Getxo
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Osasuna II
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Zamora
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponferradina and Barakaldo.
What is the prediction for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Our pick is Ponferradina or draw with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
On our numbers Ponferradina have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 32% and Barakaldo 28%.
How many goals will there be in Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Our predicted score is Ponferradina 1–0 Barakaldo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Ponferradina vs Barakaldo?
Ponferradina vs Barakaldo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Toralín.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Osasuna II0
CF Talavera