Mérida AD 42%Draw 26%Lugo 32%Expected goals 1.30 – 1.20
76%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.22
8/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Lugo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultMérida AD to win42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 12.01
Mérida AD vs Lugo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Primera División RFEF Group 1 brings Mérida AD against Lugo at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Mérida AD are 8th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Lugo are 1st (leading the league) with 28. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Mérida AD, last 5: LWDLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Arenas Getxo, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.4 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Lugo, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Osasuna II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Lugo, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.4 for Mérida AD.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mérida AD 1.3 xG, Lugo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mérida AD 42%, draw 26%, Lugo 32%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Lugo to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mérida AD 1–1 Lugo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mérida AD42%fair 2.36 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.20
Lugo32%fair 3.17 · @3.50
2.50Expected goals
1.30Mérida AD xG
1.20Lugo xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mérida AD 1.3 – 1.2 Lugo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Mérida AD
Lugo
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 1 average
+18%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
+4%
-21%
Our expected goals here
1.29
1.38
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 1 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mérida AD to win
42%
2.36
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.85
Draw no bet
Mérida AD (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Lugo +0.5 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Mérida AD to score first
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mérida AD / FT Mérida AD
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
12.01
–
Recent results
Mérida AD – last 5
LWDLW
24 Apr
@ Arenas Getxo
0–2
L
19 Apr
@ Arenteiro
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Athletic Club II
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs Guadalajara
1–4
L
22 Feb
vs Cacereño
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Lugo – last 5
LWDWW
5 Apr
vs Osasuna II
0–1
L
29 Mar
@ Cacereño
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Arenas Getxo
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs Athletic Club II
1–0
W
15 Feb
vs Guadalajara
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mérida AD and Lugo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mérida AD vs Lugo?
On our numbers Mérida AD have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lugo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mérida AD vs Lugo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mérida AD vs Lugo?
Our predicted score is Mérida AD 1–1 Lugo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mérida AD vs Lugo?
Mérida AD vs Lugo (Primera División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Romano Jose Fouto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arenteiro0
Ourense CF1