Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultNumancia to win ✓58% · @1.80
Double chanceNumancia or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.87
Numancia vs UD Ourense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Numancia welcome UD Ourense to Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos for a Segunda División RFEF Group 1 fixture on Sunday 15 February (12:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Numancia 1.5 xG, UD Ourense 0.6 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Numancia 58%, draw 26%, UD Ourense 15%.
Lower-risk option: Numancia or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Numancia or draw (85%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Numancia 1–0 UD Ourense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Numancia58%fair 1.71 · @1.80
Draw26%fair 3.79 · @3.00
UD Ourense15%fair 6.59 · @4.40
2.15Expected goals
1.55Numancia xG
0.61UD Ourense xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.5 – 0.6 UD Ourense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✓
58%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Numancia or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.95
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Numancia -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first✓
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✓
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.87
–
Recent results
Numancia
No recent results on record.
UD Ourense
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and UD Ourense.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs UD Ourense?
Our pick is Numancia or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Numancia vs UD Ourense?
On our numbers Numancia have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 26% and UD Ourense 15%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs UD Ourense?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs UD Ourense?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–0 UD Ourense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs UD Ourense?
Numancia vs UD Ourense (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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