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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

UD Ourense v Lealtad: numbers & prediction

Segunda División RFEF Group 1 · Spain · Estadio O Couto

UD Ourense

LWDWL
3–1
–

Lealtad

LLLWL
UD Ourense 50%Draw 27%Lealtad 23% Expected goals 1.01 – 0.92
51%
Betarazi pick

Not both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.97 · bookmaker 1.57

3/10Rating
1.57Odds

Picks by market

ResultUD Ourense to win50% · @1.36
Double chanceUD Ourense or draw77% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals69% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.85

UD Ourense vs Lealtad: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Sunday 19 April the Segunda División RFEF Group 1 brings UD Ourense against Lealtad at Estadio O Couto. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT.

Current form

UD Ourense, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Deportivo La Coruña II, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Lealtad, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Burgos Promesas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Momentum favours UD Ourense, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Lealtad.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give UD Ourense 1.0 xG, Lealtad 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 69%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – UD Ourense 50%, draw 27%, Lealtad 23%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Not both teams to score (51%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: UD Ourense 1–0 Lealtad. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

UD Ourense50%fair 1.99 · @1.36
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @4.00
Lealtad23%fair 4.29 · @8.50
1.93Expected goals
1.01UD Ourense xG
0.92Lealtad xG
49%Both score
31%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%

From our goals model: UD Ourense 1.0 – 0.9 Lealtad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultUD Ourense to win50%1.991.36
Double chanceUD Ourense or draw77%1.301.06
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score51%1.971.57
Draw no betUD Ourense (draw no bet)68%1.47–
Asian handicapLealtad +0.5 (Asian handicap)63%1.58–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals58%1.74–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals69%1.44–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals87%1.15–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals95%1.05–
First team to scoreUD Ourense to score first45%2.24–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time51%1.97–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw23%4.42–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015%6.85–

Recent results

UD Ourense – last 6

LWDWLW
12 Apr@ Deportivo La Coruña II0–3L
5 Aprvs Gimnástica Segoviana1–0W
29 Mar@ Marino de Luanco0–0D
22 Marvs Sámano3–1W
15 Mar@ Langreo0–1L
8 Marvs Real Oviedo II3–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Lealtad – last 6

LLLWLL
29 Marvs Burgos Promesas0–2L
22 Mar@ Deportivo La Coruña II1–3L
15 Mar@ Bergantiños0–3L
8 Marvs Gimnástica Segoviana1–0W
1 Mar@ Racing Santander II0–1L
22 Febvs Real Oviedo II1–2L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between UD Ourense and Lealtad.

UD Ourense vs Lealtad head-to-head page →

More Segunda División RFEF Group 1 predictions

League hub
FT Real Valladolid II3 Langreo0 145%2.15X23%3.35232%2.80 1.8–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 58%@1.65 ✓
FT Real Ávila2 Gimnástica Segoviana1 141%2.10X29%2.90231%3.40 1.2–1.1xG GGBoth teams to score 55%@1.73 ✓
FT Salamanca UDS0 Deportivo La Coruña II1 144%2.05X26%2.90230%3.40 1.6–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 57%@1.80 ✗
FT Sámano0 Numancia3 118%17.00X20%5.50262%1.18 1.1–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 54%@2.50 ✗
– Coruxo2 Racing Santander II0 147%1.90X25%3.30228%3.50 1.5–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 52%@1.85
– Sarriana0 Marino de Luanco0 146%2.25X26%3.00228%3.00 1.4–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 58%@1.62

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for UD Ourense vs Lealtad?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win UD Ourense vs Lealtad?

On our numbers UD Ourense have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lealtad 23%.

How many goals will there be in UD Ourense vs Lealtad?

We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for UD Ourense vs Lealtad?

Our predicted score is UD Ourense 1–0 Lealtad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.

When is UD Ourense vs Lealtad?

UD Ourense vs Lealtad (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio O Couto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.