Sámano vs Numancia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Sunday 19 April: Sámano v Numancia in the Segunda División RFEF Group 1, played at Campo de fútbol de Sámano.
Current form
Sámano, last 4: LLDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to UD Ourense, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 3.0 conceded per game.
Numancia, last 5: DDLWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sarriana, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Numancia, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for Sámano.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sámano 1.1 xG, Numancia 1.7 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sámano 18%, draw 20%, Numancia 62%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 2.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 2.50 – longer than our fair 1.84, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sámano 1–1 Numancia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sámano18%fair 5.60 · @17.00
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @5.50
Numancia62%fair 1.60 · @1.18
2.83Expected goals
1.09Sámano xG
1.73Numancia xG
54%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
0–110%
1–210%
0–29%
1–06%
2–16%
From our goals model: Sámano 1.1 – 1.7 Numancia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✓
62%
1.60
1.18
Double chance
Numancia or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
2.50 ▲
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Sámano +1 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first✓
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Numancia / FT Numancia✓
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.28
–
Recent results
Sámano – last 4
LLDL
22 Mar
@ UD Ourense
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Salamanca UDS
1–5
L
22 Feb
@ Real Valladolid II
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Lealtad
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Numancia – last 6
DDLWLW
29 Mar
vs Sarriana
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Coruxo
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Atlético Astorga
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Burgos Promesas
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportivo La Coruña II
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs UD Ourense
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sámano and Numancia.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.50.
Who will win Sámano vs Numancia?
On our numbers Sámano have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Numancia 62%.
How many goals will there be in Sámano vs Numancia?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sámano vs Numancia?
Our predicted score is Sámano 1–1 Numancia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sámano vs Numancia?
Sámano vs Numancia (Segunda División RFEF Group 1) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo de fútbol de Sámano.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Real Valladolid II3
Langreo0
Real Ávila2
Gimnástica Segoviana1
Salamanca UDS0
Deportivo La Coruña II1
Coruxo2
Racing Santander II0
Sarriana0
Marino de Luanco0
UD Ourense3
Lealtad1